New Publication on Bayesian Analysis of Pleural Disease

A new publication by Network member Derek Boyd titled "An intersectional and Bayesian investigation of pleural disease in industrializing England (1700–1857CE)" is now available to read.

Through the lens of intersectionality, this study uses Bayesian logistic regression modelling to investigate the probability of rib lesions occurring in different geographical and socio-economic groups from post-medieval England.

The study found that higher-class Londoners were less likely to develop rib lesions, whilst lower-class Londoners were most likely. The probability for more northerly situated groups from Barton-upon-Humber (North Lincolnshire) and North Shields (Newcastle-upon-Tyne) fell between these two London social classes.

This study highlights how the privileges associated with higher socioeconomic class in the urban environment of London protected from the liklihood of developing pleural disease.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

This study used an intersectional lens to investigate pleural disease burden in adults from industrial-era England.

Materials

Demographic (age-at-death and biological sex) and paleopathological data (periosteal new bone on the visceral rib) were collected from the skeletal remains of 478 adults from Barton-upon-Humber (St. Peter’s Church), London (New Bunhill Fields and St. Bride’s Fleet Street), and North Shields (Coach Lane).

Methods

A Bayesian logistic model with priors informed by historical respiratory mortality trends was fitted to the skeletal data to estimate the posterior probability of presenting rib lesions among social strata defined by biological sex, socioeconomic status (SES), and region of burial.

Results

The model identified an association between SES, region, and rib lesion probability, which translated into three stratum-level clusters: higher SES Londoners (lowest), lower SES Londoners (highest), and the remaining strata (intermediate). Median age-at-death was substantially lower for individuals with than without lesions.

Conclusions

Variation in pleural disease burden was attributed to environmental privilege among affluent Londoners, differences in the pace of urbanization, and the sociohistorical contexts of the skeletal samples.

Significance

This study used Bayesian inference to quantify the health effects of intersectionality in a historical population, providing a theory-driven approach that incorporates archival, mortuary, and skeletal data.

Limitations

The impact of selective mortality within strata is unclear due to sample size issues.

Suggestions for future research

Research is needed to locate additional identities hidden within the archaeological record that may have interacted multiplicatively with class and gender to influence respiratory health in the past.